How often players hit various statistical thresholds over their last 20 games
Hit Rate Sheets — Explained Simply
Think of hit rates like a batting average, but for any stat.
We look at a player's last 5, 10, 15, or 20 games
and ask: "How often did they go OVER a specific number?"
Example: If a batter got 1+ hits in 17 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate for "Hits 0.5" is 85%.
That's very consistent — he almost always gets at least one hit.
Example: If a player scored 20+ points in 16 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate at the "20.5" line is 80%.
That's very consistent — he almost always hits that number.
Example: If a player recorded 3+ shots on goal in 15 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate at the "2.5" line is 75%.
That's consistent — he usually puts up 3+ shots.
Example: If a receiver had 50+ receiving yards in 14 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate at the "49.5" line is 70%.
That's consistent — he usually clears 50 yards.
What Each Column Means
Line — The threshold number (e.g., 0.5 means "1 or more")
Hit Rate — Percentage of games the player went OVER that line
Avg — Player's average for that stat over the sample
Games — How many games were used (more = more reliable)
Odds — Current sportsbook odds for that line, if available
Def Rank — How the opponent ranks defensively against that stat (lower = tougher matchup)
Green hit rates (70%+) = strong consistency.
Yellow (50-69%) = coin flip.
Red (<50%) = they usually DON'T hit that number.
Tip: Use the sample size filter (L5, L10, L15, L20) to see recent form vs longer trends.
A player hitting 100% over L5 but 60% over L20 is on a hot streak but less reliable long-term.
Full stat sheets showing how often every player hits their prop lines. Sort by hit rate, filter by stat type, and find the most reliable players at a glance.
Full stat sheets showing how often every player hits their prop lines. Sort by hit rate, filter by stat type, and find the most reliable players at a glance.
