How often players hit various statistical thresholds over their last 20 games
Hit Rate Sheets — Explained Simply
Think of hit rates like a batting average, but for any stat.
We look at a player's last 5, 10, 15, 20 games, or full season
and ask: "How often did they go OVER a specific number?"
Example: If a batter got 1+ hits in 17 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate for "Hits 0.5" is 85%.
That's very consistent — he almost always gets at least one hit.
Example: If a player scored 20+ points in 16 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate at the "19.5" line is 80%.
That's very consistent — he almost always hits that number.
Example: If a player recorded 3+ shots on goal in 15 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate at the "2.5" line is 75%.
That's consistent — he usually puts up 3+ shots.
Example: If a receiver had 50+ receiving yards in 14 out of his last 20 games,
his hit rate at the "49.5" line is 70%.
That's consistent — he usually clears 50 yards.
What Each Column Means
Line — The threshold number (e.g., 0.5 means "1 or more")
Hit Rate — Percentage of games the player went OVER that line
Avg — Player's average for that stat over the sample
Games — How many games were used (more = more reliable)
Odds — Current sportsbook odds for that line, if available
Def Rank — How the opponent ranks against that stat (lower = tougher matchup)
Green hit rates (70%+) = strong consistency.
Yellow (50-69%) = coin flip.
Red (<50%) = they usually DON'T hit that number.
Tip: Use the sample size filter (L5, L10, L15, L20) to see recent form vs longer trends.
A player hitting 100% over L5 but 60% over L20 is on a hot streak but less reliable long-term.
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WIN 10+%
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RISK
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Hit Rate
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When today's lines are released, hit rates will appear here.
Scanning hit rates...
No hit rate data available. Run the daily computation first.
85%+ Excellent
70-84% Good
60-69% Decent
50-59% Below Avg
40-49% Poor
<40% Very Poor
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Threshold Hit Rate
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Common Questions
What are prop hit rate sheets?
Hit rate sheets show how often a player hits alternate lines for every stat type. If the sportsbook line is 22.5 points, the sheet shows their hit rate at every level — 15, 20, 25, 30, and so on — across 10, 15, and 20 game samples. It's the fastest way to spot where the real value is on alternative lines.
How do I use hit rate sheets for betting?
The sheets show you which levels a player has been consistent at. Find the thresholds where they're hitting at a high rate, then check where the sportsbook actually has the line set. That tells you whether there's a gap worth betting into — or whether the book already has it priced correctly.
